Rob’s Tropical Thoughts: 9/26/22

Published: Sep. 26, 2022 at 7:23 AM EDT
Email This Link
Share on Pinterest
Share on LinkedIn

The 5am ADVISORY upgrades IAN to a HURRICANE.

No real surprise there.

Conditions over the Caribbean and S Gulf are pretty favorable for strengthening. There is some dry air just West of where IAN is. That may bump it a little to the East and that may also prevent full development of the storm. MORE dry air will be dropping South from the lower 48, and that will play an important role in the evolution of IAN and its path after 48hours.

The core is more identifiable this morning, and that’s huge for getting the computers into more agreement. And just watching it on satellite there’s a lot of development and movement to the N with that core.

Remember yesterday when I wrote about IF I see this trend of moving more N than W that would get me to start leaning toward the more Eastern solution? Well, from 5am Sunday to 5am Monday the storm motion keeps turning more N - here are the numbers on storm motion:

5am Sun 285 degrees

11am Sun 290 degrees

5pm Sun 300 degrees

11pm Sun 315 degrees

5am Mon 325 degrees.

So that supports the lean towards a more Eastern solution... but it’s still going NW and not due N, so we won’t get too excited about it yet. If this trend continues, I’ll expect the NHC to shift the cone more to the E and the FL Peninsula.

We still have time to watch and see with IAN. Areas near Tampa (like 100miles north and south of Tampa) should be on high alert today. Wednesday could get very busy there. Thursday/Friday would be the time when more of the N FL Peninsula and Gulf Coast can expect anything. And what that “anything” could be is still a question. A slowing tropical system can be a significant rain producer, so there’s that.

I’ll have more here at 11am. And I’ll plan to do a FB Live Chat right after that (like 11:15am EDT) too.

Hang in there, peeps. It’s coming into focus.