Charles’ First Alert Forecast - Sunday, Sept. 11

Rain chances will drop through mid week with a possibility of some drier air moving in - for a short time. Meteorologist Charles Roop has the details.
Published: Sep. 11, 2022 at 11:07 AM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Some locations near the Big Bend coast have received as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain in the last three days based on Doppler radar estimates, and the viewing area will likely see more as the weekend ends.

An elongated mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure was still sitting over the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning and continued to bring some lift to the area along with drag moisture from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. This low will deteriorate as the new work week begins as a larger trough moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. early in the week. The new trough will bring a cold front into the Southeast Monday into Tuesday. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s Sunday with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Monday’s rain odds will drop to 60%.

Recent ensemble guidance model runs hinted at a better possibility of drier air moving into the Big Bend and South Georgia as the front moves south. The latest ensemble run of the American GFS left enough minor doubt to keep the Wednesday morning low only in the upper 60s in some inland locations - including Tallahassee. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s to near 90 Monday through Friday. Tuesday through Friday morning’s lows (with the exception of Wednesday) will be from near 70 to the lower 70s.

The dry air surge will likely be short lived and rain chances will return to around 40% Friday through Saturday.