Rob’s Tropical Thoughts: June 28, 2022

Published: Jun. 28, 2022 at 7:46 AM EDT
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#TropicalThoughts Tuesday June 28th, 2022, Late Morning Edition:

A few updates as the morning went on and the investigations continued into the energy out in The Tropics.

First - still can’t call it BONNIE yet. Not enough organization around that core that is moving rapidly to the W and staying far enough N of the S American Coast to keep everything strong. Interaction with land or remaining over water is the big thing right now as this continues to try and develop. I’ll be real surprised if we aren’t calling this BONNIE later today. Especially with watching the satellite trends of it staying far enough N and over the open waters.

No real change to the thinking of the development or path, way down to the South the whole life span of this system, no threat to the US.

Second - that hiccup in the W Gulf. Plenty of life to it, even if there’s next to no organization. The showers keep firing and that moisture will bring plenty of chances for rain to the Texas Coast. Def worth watching, but development is unlikely. (Of course, crazier things have happened with energy in the Gulf, especially when it just sits there and doesn’t move for days).

That boundary to the N over parts of Texas and up thru the Carolinas may be an interesting wrinkle. It’s unlikely that the boundary is going to move much, so this energy will just drift a bit. If the boundary makes some progress S, it can prevent the energy from getting to Texas. If not, the energy can get off the water and fizzle. Something to watch...

See Rob’s early morning update below.

Rob's Tropical Thoughts
Rob's Tropical Thoughts(wctv)

Tuesday June 28th, 2022, Early Morning Edition:

Can’t call it Tropical Storm BONNIE yet. Not enough organization around that convection yet. It’s trying, and there aren’t a lot of obstacles in the way. It’s going to get there - likely sometime today.

All signs point towards it hugging that northern edge of S America, and bringing rain. Depending on how much land vs water it stays over will determine if this can get cranked up all the way to Hurricane strength at some point. This system will stay that far S the whole time, so no worries for us or any US interest.

The hiccup behind it is less likely to develop - following in the footsteps of PTC Two will make those waters and environment less favorable for development.

The energy in the W Gulf, moving towards Texas is interesting. It’s having some moments where it flares up a little, and more moments where it fizzles. All the while, staying intact. As it drifts towards the Texas Coast, it should provide a solid focus for enhanced showers and thunderstorms. So even if it doesn’t get any better organized (and it likely wont) it will be a rain-producer well to our West.

Active Tropics, but no worries in our forecast from them.

Thanks for reading and sharing this!

Rob's Tropical Thoughts
Rob's Tropical Thoughts(wctv)
Rob's Tropical Thoughts
Rob's Tropical Thoughts(wctv)

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