Tropical Depression Two develops; two other disturbances being watched
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - A weak area of low pressure off of North Carolina’s coast caught meteorologist’s attention early Monday morning as it appeared to organize quickly into something more tropical. The National Hurricane Center concurred and named it a tropical depression after 10 a.m. Monday.
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located offshore of the coast of North Carolina and moving away from the United States, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 14, 2021
The depression, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as of the 11 a.m. advisory, was moving at a brisk 21 mph to the northeast. The official forecast has it becoming a tropical storm by Monday evening as it runs parallel along the U.S. East Coast, but it’s run may not last long. It’s forecast to become wrapped up into a larger, mid-latitude low pressure center and disintegrate as soon as Tuesday morning. The tropical depression is not expected to have an impact on the weather in the Big Bend and South Georgia.
Meanwhile, as of Monday afternoon, two other disturbances were being watched for potential development. One tropical wave that was moving off of the western African coast Monday morning also caught the eyes of forecasters. The large and deep-convection-filled tropical wave appeared more like something that would be seen in August and not the middle of June.
The National Hurricane Center is giving that wave a 20% chance of development over the next five days, noting that any development will be slow going. It also may run into some higher wind shear, and dry and dusty air thanks to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that was passing by to the north of the wave. Those elements are not good for tropical cyclone formation.
Closer to Florida and Georgia, a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche was being watched since the weekend for potential tropical development. The low has a medium potential of tropical development over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
With the low not moving much for the last few days, forecasting its movement will be tricky. Guidance models have the low slowly moving north over time into the western Gulf of Mexico. There is a potential of a broad swath of moisture from the disturbance to move close to the Big Bend as the weekend nears, though that would depend on how organized it can get. There is also potential for some of the aforementioned SAL to have an impact on the development of the low. More should be known over the next several days.
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